Author: Qinghan Bian

DOI: 10.9734/ijecc/2019/v9i1230160

Abstract: Scrutiny and analysis of various energy applications show that the energy conversion to useful work or new products has been systematically inefficient. The global energy’s total effective conversion efficiency is estimated only about 20% and about 80% of the energy has been discharged into the environment. It is this energy that leads to the unbalance of the climate system’s energy budget balance and causes the global warming.

This article presents a simple equivalent climate change model to track the past global warming and to predict the future change trend at the global scale. The model comprises of an equivalent climate change surface air boundary layer, an equivalent climate change land surface boundary layer and an equivalent climate change seawaters surface boundary layer. It produces unique definitive relationships between the temperature changes and the heat entered the air, waters and land. The model can also be used to forecast future non-renewable energy consumption needed to keep the temperature rising under Paris Accord.

Analysis of currently available data by using this model confirms that temperature changes in air, seawaters and land closely correlate to the amount of heat discharged into the climate system from human activities. NASA and NOAA’s observations of temperature anomalies for the surface air, sea surface and land surface are well consistent with the temperature changes calculated by this model, especially the calculated results at the depth of 70 meters of the surface air boundary layer and NASA’s Lowess Smoothing trend are very close.

Flaring intensifies global warming. Reducing use of fossil fuels, nuclear and geothermal energies, developing surface renewable energies and increasing energy’s total effective conversion efficiency and thus reducing the amount of residual/waste energy are the paths to effectively and efficiently control global warming.

Author: Qinghan Bian

DOI: 10.1186/s40068-020-00169-2

Abstract:

Background

Pursuing GHG reductions by means of all resources and efforts has turned out no result to stop or even slow the global warming: the globe still gets warmer and warmer, especially in the recent years, at record-breaking rate almost each single year. Additionally, no definitive relationship has been found between the warming and the atmospheric GHG concentration. The link between them even in IPCC’s report lacks support and is unconvincing. All these imply that something else is responsible for the warming. On the other hand, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat from human activities has been poured into the climate system but has not been considered seriously in the context of global warming or climate change.

Results

This article features deploying the basic principles of thermodynamics and applying a new model, Equivalent Climate Change Model, to analyse the currently available data on world energy consumption between 1965 and 2017, and to study the relation between the global warming and the waste heat entered the climate system. The results show that the temperature changes in air, oceans and land are definitively correlated to the respective heat allocated from the waste heat stream based on their specific heat capacities, with high certainty and reliability. The observed anomalies in air fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change surface air boundary layer depth between 50 and 100 m (60 ~ 100 m in recent decades due to more establishments of high-rising heat discharging sources); the anomalies in oceans fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change waters surface boundary layer depth between 0.10 and 0.20 m (0.125 ~ 0.20 m in recent decades); and the anomalies in land fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change land surface boundary layer depth between 0.05 and 0.10 m (0.06 ~ 0.10 m in recent decades). The simulation results at the air layer depth of 70 m are almost the same as NASA’s Lowess smoothing trend. Forecast of future global warming based on this model under the scenario of business as usual indicates that the possible air temperature risings will be in the range of 0.68 ~ 1.13 °C in 2030 and 0.73 ~ 1.22 °C in 2040; the possible sea temperature risings will be in the range of 0.61 ~ 0.98 °C in 2030, 0.66 ~ 1.05 °C in 2040; and the possible land temperature risings will be in the range of 1.02 ~ 1.71 °C in 2030, 1.10 ~ 1.84 °C in 2040. However, if the energy conversion efficiency increased by 10% by 2030 and another 10% by 2040, then the possible air temperature risings would be in the range of 0.54 ~ 0.90 °C in 2030 and 0.44 ~ 0.73 °C in 2040; the possible sea temperature risings would be in the range of 0.49 ~ 0.78 °C in 2030, and 0.40 ~ 0.64 °C in 2040; and the possible land temperature risings would be in the range of 0.81 ~ 1.36 °C in 2030 and 0.66 ~ 1.11 °C in 2040. The observed global average air temperature changes and the Lowess Smoothing values in 2018 and 2019 fall within the range set by the air layer depth between 60 and 100 m, are consistent with the forecast under the scenario of business as usual, further confirms the reliability of this approach.

Conclusions

Greenhouse gases are not the culprit of the current global warming, instead, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat discharged into the environment from human activities has dominated the warming (beside of solar irradiance and volcano eruptions). Pursuing GHG reductions is bound to be ineffective in preventing the globe from further warming but increases unnecessary burdens. Switching to 100% of surface renewable energies is the ideal solution to completely solve further warming problem. However, geotherm does cause global warming although it is a type of renewable energy. Increasing energy’s conversion efficiency can effectively help slow down the warming, it requires vast investment and will embrace breakthroughs in technologies. Changing human’s behavior individually and socially and retrofitting can decrease the energy consumption and the amount of heat entering the environment and thus help mitigate climate change and its impact in the most cost-effective way. Unlike the General Circulation Models that can only simulate the past air temperature changes with greater uncertainty, the Equivalent Climate Change Model can not only trace the past temperature changes in air, oceans and land, but also can predict the future changes in them, respectively, with high certainty and reliability.

Author: Michel Vert

DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10506806.1

Abstract: The information disseminated by greenhouse effect specialists is worrying. Climatic disruption is widely attributed to an increase in a natural “greenhouse effect” due to carbon dioxide (CO2) present in the atmosphere. Reducing the sources of CO2 is therefore the recommended solution. The area is, however, controversial. This alternative is based on facts and not on hypotheses and calculations. It is shown that a minimum estimate of the anthropogenic thermal energy diffused into the environment in 2018 (0.1 Zj) and the heat necessary to melt the ice given as having disappeared in the year (0.08 Zj) are of the same order of magnitude. This observation suggests that it is not necessary to appeal to the greenhouse effect to explain the disappearance of ice that is increasingly evident over the years. The discussion shows that taking into account the generally neglected anthropogenic thermal energy and the phase equilibria of water makes it possible to provide a logical explanation for the observation of the small variations in the average temperatures of the atmosphere and oceanic water while the melting of the ice is considerable. It is also shown that the growth curves of total energy, anthropogenic heat and ice melting followed the same trends over the period 2000-2018. A few years should be enough to confirm or refute this observation. If this is confirmed, replacing fossil sources of CO2 to limit climate effects will be of no interest if the new sources provide as much heat. It is the control of population growth and that of the energy necessary for humanity that must be promoted.

Related documents:

La fonte des glaces : et si l’effet de serre du CO 2 anthropique n’était pas la (seule) raison ?  25/01/2020. https://hal.science/hal-02362816v3  (Preprint in French)

Loss of ices: what if the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic CO2 was not the sole cause? 2020 HAL CNRS Archive, https://hal.science/hal-02418659v3 (preprint in English , Version submitted to Climate and rejected)

Author: Michel Vert

DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10507521.3

Submitted to Earth’s Future, accepted and lately censored after the comments of 5 ndew reviewers. Their reports are available in the comment section in ReseachGate

Abstract: The role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) in global warming is confusing. Experts predict that changes in ocean level and atmospheric temperature will increase considerably in distant future. On the other hand, loss of ices in the World is already dramatic and has increased over the recent years. Anthropogenic CO₂-related greenhouse effects may be responsible for the global warming; however, ice imbalance remains to be explained in more details. We previously showed that estimated anthropogenic heat released between 1994 and 2017 was energetic enough to have caused the melting of a large part of the global ice lost during the same period. To complement this finding, the present work suggests that water on Earth behaves as a refrigerant and manages solar heat and anthropogenic heat similarly. It is also shown that the combustion of fossil hydrocarbons is releasing a huge amount of water stored for millions years in fossil hydrocarbon sources of energy. As anthropogenic heat is no longer negligible, minimizing CO₂ production may not be enough to control climate perturbations. Hydrogen is regarded as a climate-friendly alternative source of energy. The last part suggests that heat-cycle assessment from cradle to grave should be used in addition to life cycle assessment to compare hydrogen with other sources of energy in the search for ways to minimize anthropogenic heat release and its impact on climate changes.

Author: Michel Vert

DOI: 10.11648/j.ijees.20220705.11

Abstract: A direct relationship between abnormally rapid global warming and the CO₂ produced by the exploitation and human uses of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, peat) is the basis of the recommendations made by the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (the IPCC group) to fight against a worrying climatic drift in the next few decades. The IPCC mechanism of global warming is mostly based on radiative forcing and does not take into account ice melting and water evaporation as temperature controlling physical phenomena. Although, more and more scientists argue against the consensual IPCC’s vision, what is missing is opposition of another mechanism. The aim of this article is to propose an alternative mechanism derived from the analysis of facts and factors that contribute to warm the Earth. Starting from the fact that the Sun has been heating the planet for billions of years without dramatic drift other than fluctuations, it is shown that the environment is heated from natural sources (Sun, volcanoes) and by anthropogenic heat releases. Anthropogenic heat is mostly composed of residual or waste heat coming from the production and the uses of energy necessary to satisfy human needs in work. To avoid the complexity of phenomena occurring in the atmosphere, the discussion was mostly based on examples taken from the current life to make the involved sciences clearer. Two major facts are emphasized. First, if there are natural and anthropogenic sources of heat energy on Earth, heat is a unique physical phenomenon. Second, heating by natural sources is sequential (day and night, summer and winter) while anthropogenic heating is almost permanent. This new vision leads to a new mechanism based on the physical and thermal properties of water and of solid-liquid-gas interphase equilibria involving exchanges of matter and heat. According to this mechanism, the temperature and ocean level rises should be smaller than predicted by the IPCC group but climatic events (winds, storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, streams, etc.) that are involved in the averaging of opposite local climates (dry and wet, droughts and floods, cold and hot, etc.) should increase in strength and frequency. It is concluded that minimizing anthropogenic heat release should be more efficient than fighting the sole CO₂ to keep the drift of climatic events within acceptable limits.

Author: Qinghan Bian

DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1108945

Abstract: Historical data since 1880 shows that no correlation exists between air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, that strong pseudo-correlation from 1965 does exist implies that there could be a strong correlation between the warming and waste heat because the latter and CO2 are concurrent by-products of fossil fuel combustion. Global warming is a basic thermodynamic problem driven by huge amount of waste heat from human activities that is about 80% of globally consumed energy. This article presents a climate change thermodynamic model of a quaternary system consisting of air, land, oceans, and ices to investigate the warming phenomena through a thermodynamic approach. Unique, definitive relationships exist between warming or sea level rise and the amount of waste heat allocated to each of the components according to their respective specific heat capacities. Simulation results of past temperature changes in air, land, and seawaters as well as sea level rise are very well consistent with observed anomalies and sea level rise measurements. The results suggest that waste heat dominates global warming. This approach can also be used to forecast future warming. Additionally, the climate system experienced a transition from a cold to a warm era around 1980, before that time the system was “heat” hungry. Reducing thermal emissions, increasing energy conversion efficiency, and recovering and reusing waste heat are important measures to effectively mitigate climate change.

Author: Francisco Castro Rego

doi: 10.54026/ESECR/1064

Author: Francisco Castro Rego

DOI: 10.54026/ESECR/1064

Author: Francisco Castro Rego

ISSN: 2833-0811

Author: Michel Vert

DOI:10.22541/essoar.170000336.69527212/v1

Abstract: Unlike the radiative forcing linked to CO2 and its cumulative storage in oceans since the start of the industrial era around two centuries ago, the Sun has heated the Earth for billions of years without accumulation and dramatic temperature drift. To overcome this obviously illogical difference in evolution, we first analyze several reasons showing that the current universally adopted relationship between carbon dioxide and global warming does not respect the fundamentals of Chemistry, Physics, and Thermodynamics. A recently proposed alternative mechanism, based on these hard sciences, is briefly recalled. In this new mechanism, heat on Earth is managed by water and its solid-liquid and liquid-vapor interphases equilibria before radiative elimination in space. Today, anthropogenic heat is increasingly seen as a complement to the solar heating although it is neglected in the universally adopted consensus. Anthropogenic heat releases are generally estimated from global energy consumption. A broader list of sources is established that includes the capture of solar thermal infrared radiations by artificial installations, including those acting as greenhouses. Three qualitative scenarios are proposed in which climate change depends on whether the ratio of anthropogenic heat releases relative to solar thermal contributions remains negligible, is acceptable or becomes so large that it could shorten the time until the next ice age. Currently, global temperature and ocean level are still very low compared to those in distant past. On the other hand, ice disappearance is indisputable, particularly at the levels of glaciers, floating ice, and permafrost. These features fit the scenario in which temperature continued to fluctuate as it did during the last 8,000 years of the current Holocene interglacial plateau while local rains, winds, floodings, droughts, etc., worsen in magnitude and frequency to help ice melt and evaporation manage excess heat. Policymakers should not wait to discover that decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide has little effect on the worsening of climate events to begin mitigating of anthropogenic heat with the help of hard sciences scientists to work on quantification.

Author: Michel Vert

DOI: 10.34343/ijpest.2023.17.e02003

Abstract: IPCC’s predictions of climate deterioration include increases in temperature and in ocean level, as well as local climate events, all attributed to a surplus of carbon dioxide source of radiative forcing that has been building up in the oceans since carbon-based fossil compounds are exploited to generate energy. This mechanism is only consensual and is therefore subject to more and more criticisms without echo because of absence of an alternative mechanism. Selected unusual reasons are first presented to convince non-specialists that greenhouse effect and radiative forcing lack solid scientific bases. As according to physics and thermodynamics, the management of heat inputs in the atmosphere and in the environment must be independent of the source, a recently proposed mechanism based on ice melting and water evaporation is recalled and justified by its extension to distant pass climate fluctuations. Given the major roles attributed to anthropogenic heat releases, in particular waste heat, on the climate, the future depends on the evolution of the anthropogenic/solar heat input ratio. Three scenarios are discussed with respect to reported climate fluctuations for the last 8,000 years of the current interglacial plateau. To position the current times with respect to these scenarios, heat and waste heat generated by the different energy sources and their uses must be assessed from cradle-to-grave to complete the life cycle assessment. With regard to electricity, such assessment must include, for each source, the production mode, in particular for renewable resources, as well as the transport and uses with the aim of increasing efficiency to produce work and minimize waste heat emissions.